Rosh Chodesh debate, continued

UPDATE BELOW: Avi ben Mordechai’s thoughts!

Karaite Korner Newsletter #376

New Moon Report
March 2009
First Biblical Month
Part 2

We received reports from observers who sighted the new moon on Friday night, March 27, 2009 (many of them do not use phones on Shabbat, hence the delay). The new moon was sighted:

*from Ashdod by Eli Shamuel and Magdi Shamuel at 19:24;
*from Maale Adumim by Akiva Hoffman at 19:12;
*from Efrat by Daniel Jackson at 19:25;
*from Beersheva by Yaron Laluz (time not recorded).

This confirms that the biblical month began on Friday night March 27 and that the Feast of Unleavened Bread will commence on Friday night April 10.

Nehemia Gordon
Jerusalem, Israel

So, for those of us who don’t have any problem accepting the Rabbinic Practice of allowing Rosh Chodesh reports to come in up to noonish the following morning (as would have been the case if these people had had to travel to Jerusalem by camel or donkey or on foot to make their report), then we can consider yesterday, Saturday, to be Rosh Chodesh Nisan.

If you choose not to accept that practice, then you would consider Sunday, today, as Rosh Chodesh Nisan because the New Moon was not sighted in Jerusalem at sundown.

The head of each family must be convinced in their own mind which day is the correct date – because it makes a big difference this month. Many months it would not be a big deal, with nothing but Rabbinic fasts or Rabbinic Feasts to observe – but this month has Torah appointed times, which we must observe on the correct day according to Elohim’s command.

I cannot make the decision for you as to which day to sanctify as Rosh Chodesh. While I don’t personally agree, my husband has decided to accept the Rabbinic practice of allowing reports from places other than Jerusalem (not to accept Nehemia’s claim that astronomical charts determine the New Moon, just so you understand the distinction).

I will be changing the Yahoo calendar accordingly here in a few minutes.

Shalom everyone, and Happy New Year of Redemption – a step on the road to the New Year of Salvation in the Messianic Kingdom!

UPDATE:

Millennium Communications, Jerusalem
March 29, 2009
Shalom!

ROSH CHODESH AVIV 1
Shalom from Jerusalem.

Some have written me asking which night was the new moon night. Obviously, a true sighting would be the preferable method for how to time the beginning of the new month. However, the rainy season in Israel lasts from Sukkot until Pesach, therefore we often have trouble viewing the new moon due to clouds during those months. This month was no exception, since there were too many clouds in the sky in order to view the new moon. There are at the present two methods by which we can count the new month if visibility is not possible due to clouds or other environmental factors:

1. Pure sighting/default to the 30th day.

There are times, especially during the winter months, when there can be as many as two weeks or more where there are clouds every evening that block the view of the moon. For this reason, it is impossible to follow a pure sighting method that relies only on viewing the moon, because there will be some months where you will not be able to sight the new moon until two weeks later, when it is full. Therefore, this method relies on the past observation that no lunar month has ever been more than 30 days long. So, when the new moon is not sighted by the evening following the 29th day of the current month, this method selects, by default, the next night as the new moon night.

If you follow this method of counting the new moon, then the new moon night will be counted as Motz’ei Shabbat, on the evening of Saturday, March 28th, and the first day of the month will be Yom Rishon, Sunday March 29th. The first day of unleavened bread for you, then, would start on the evening of April 11th, and continue until the evening of April 12th.

2. Potential visibility

Another, more recent and somewhat controversial, method of determining the beginning of the month is the potential visibility method. Nehemia Gordon has been proposing this method of determining the day of the new moon for about a year or so now. This method is made possible by the fact that the Karaites now have about 25 or so years worth of actual sighting data that has made it possible to determine under which conditions the new moon is very likely to be seen, which conditions prohibit the moon from being seen, and which conditions are borderline. When the moon is sighted there is never any issue; it is only those months where clouds prevent us from viewing the moon that present a problem. In these cases, the potential visibility method will call the new moon on the evening following the 29th day of the month if and only if the conditions are such that the moon definitely would have been seen if there were no clouds. If the conditions were borderline, this method would still default to the 30th day if sighting is impossible due to clouds.

These data for the coming year are available at http://www.karaite-korner.org/holiday_dates.shtml , or you can go to www.timeanddate.com to determine them for yourself.

The two factors that influence potential sighting are percent illumination and lag time. Percent illumination refers to the percentage of the moon’s surface facing the earth that is illuminated by the sun. At the astronomical conjunction, this percentage is 0%; at the full moon, it is 100%. We are not able to view the new moon until enough of the illuminated surface of the moon is facing us that we can see it with the naked eye; usually about one to two days after the astronomical conjunction. Obviously, the darker the sky is at the time that we view the moon, the less illumination we need in order to be able to see it, and that leads us to our second factor: lag time. Lag time refers to the number of minutes after sunset that the moon will set. The longer you have between sunset and moonset, the darker the sky will be, and the less illumination you will need in order to see the new moon. This brings us to our data for this past new moon day (based upon data taken from the above two websites):

March 27th
sunset: 6:55 PM
moonset: 7:55 PM
lag time: 60 minutes
% illumination: 1.36%

With a full 60 minutes past sunset, the sky was fully dark well before moonset, and therefore, had there been no clouds on that evening, we can be confident to say that the moon very definitely would have been visible. Therefore, I see no problem with calling this past erev Shabbat as the new moon night.

If you use potential visibility as your method, then the new moon night will be counted as Erev Shabbat, March 27th, and the first day of the month will be Shabbat, March 28th.

Objections:

a. I prefer to rely only upon an actual visual sighting

As mentioned above, there are some months where clouds prevent us from seeing the new moon until days or weeks later, leaving us with the possibility that if we rely only on an actual visual sighting, then we will sometimes have to declare the new moon when it is already full! This is further complicated by the fact that there are so few new moon observers in Israel, and they are mostly concentrated in Jerusalem, so we don’t have people all over Israel that could be positioned better to see the moon when it is cloudy in Jerusalem.

b. Potential sighting relies on human calculation

Yes, the potential visibility method relies upon a database of more than twenty years of actual sightings. When these sightings were first begun, it would have been impossible to know what conditions needed to be met in order to predict with any certainty that the new moon would be seen on a given night. However, with over twenty years of data plotted on a graph, a clear pattern has emerged which does allow us to predict it with confidence, of course only when the conditions are not borderline.

I should mention here that the other model, in which you default to the 30th day, is also based upon human calculation. It is based upon the observation that we have never seen a 28 day or 31 day lunar month. But can we say this with confidence? Will there never be a month like that, even once in a million months? You might argue that astronomical models prohibit a 28 day or 31 day lunar month, and in that case, I would argue that you are therefore relying on those astronomical data, just like the potential visibility method does, so what is the difference, and how does that make the 30th day default method any better?

c. But isn’t this calculation, just like the rabbinic method?

The potential visibility method, being based upon actual past sighting data and real astronomical conditions, is miles ahead of the rabbinic method of determining the new moon. The rabbinical model is a purely mathematical model which approximates, but almost never guesses exactly, the correct new moon day. It is based upon the fiction that every lunar month is exactly the same number of days. This cannot be true, because the orbit of the earth around the sun is not circular, but elliptical; and furthermore, the irregularities of the moon’s orbit around the earth are such that it is impossible to predict with confidence that the lunar months will always be 29, 30, 29, 30 days, very neatly, as the rabbinic calendar predicts. For this reason, the rabbinic calendar almost always guesses the wrong new moon day, and only once in a while gets it right. Even when the rabbinic model calls for a two-day festival, just in case they don’t get it right, oftentimes BOTH of those days are not correct! Such a thing happened this past Yom Teruah, when the rabbinic calendar set aside two days for the holiday, yet the real new moon day was not until the night after their two-day holiday had ended! Just as a comparison, let’s look at the astronomical data for this past rabbinical rosh chodesh:

March 25th
sunset: 5:54 PM
moonset: 4:52 PM
lag time: none (moonset was 62 minutes BEFORE sunset!)
% ill.: 2% (waning moon)

In this example, the rabbinic calendar called the new moon day when the moon was a 2% waning crescent–you can hardly call that a new moon! The astronimic conjunction didn’t occur until over 24 hours later, on March 26th at 6:06 PM! Furthermore, the moonset was on this day over one hour before sunset, so the moon very likely would not have been visible, anyway. The light of the sun would have prevented us from seeing it, especially since in order to view it, you would have had to stare in the direction of the setting sun. These facts can be verified by going to http://www.timeanddate.com

As always, search the truth for yourself, and do not rely upon me, or anyone else as an authority. You must follow your conscience and do as you feel that YHWH is leading you.

May YHWH bless you

Dina Orit (Avi’s wife)

PS/FYI: in case any of you are wondering why sunset on March 25th was at 5:54 PM, and then on March 27th it was at 6:55 PM, it is because Israel went on Daylight Saving Time on March 27th.

From Jerusalem, Israel
Happy New Year and Rosh Chodesh Sameach!
Avi and Dina

Again, each head of household must be convinced in their own mind which is the correct date – Elohim will only judge you by your own actions and inactions, not by what everyone else might be doing. If one explanation or another satisfies you, then even if you’re incorrect Elohim will honor your intentions and motivations. So be sure of your motives – don’t pick one or the other because it would be more convenient for your work or or school or family schedule.

With that thought I leave you to enjoy your day, whether you believe today is Rosh Chodesh or not. Shalom!